Wednesday, October 21, 2015

U.S. #oil output almost back down to level of last #OPEC meeting

Interesting chart from this Bloomberg article: OPEC is about to crush the US oil boom.



Key Points

Saudis oil strategy appears to be working:

1.       Oil prices remains 33% percent lower than when OPEC revealed its strategy on Nov. 27.
2.       U.S. crude production has retreated about 500,000 barrels a day from the three-decade peak reached in June to 9.1 million a day in the week to Oct. 9, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
3.       The losses will accelerate next year with a drop of 390,000 barrels a day in annual average production to 8.86 million barrels a day, according to the EIA. OPEC's fortunes will improve as the U.S. declines, with the IEA predicting demand for the group's crude climbing to 31.1 million barrels a day next year from 29.3 million in 2014

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

#Solar & Wind Reach a Big #Renewables Turning Point : BNEF - Bloomberg Business

"As more renewables are installed, coal and natural gas plants are used less...[and] the cost of using them to generate electricity goes up. As the cost of coal and gas power rises, more renewables will be installed. "
image1.PNG

The virtuous cycle has begun.

This from Bloomberg:

Solar and Wind Just Passed Another Big Turning Point

Wind power is now the cheapest electricity to produce in both Germany and the U.K., even without government subsidies, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). It's the first time that threshold has been crossed by a G7 economy.
But that's less interesting than what just happened in the U.S. 
To appreciate what's going on there, you need to understand the capacity factor. That's the percentage of a power plant's maximum potential that's actually achieved over time.
Consider a solar project. The sun doesn't shine at night and, even during the day, varies in brightness with the weather and the seasons. So a project that can crank out 100 megawatt hours of electricity during the sunniest part of the day might produce just 20 percent of that when averaged out over a year. That gives it a 20 percent capacity factor.
One of the major strengths of fossil fuel power plants is that they can command very high and predictable capacity factors. The average U.S. natural gas plant, for example, might produce about 70 percent of its potential (falling short of 100 percent because of seasonal demand and maintenance). But that's what's changing, and it's a big deal. 
For the first time, widespread adoption of renewables is effectively lowering the capacity factor for fossil fuels. That's because once a solar or wind project is built, the marginal cost of the electricity it produces is pretty much zero—free electricity—while coal and gas plants require more fuel for every new watt produced. If you're a power company with a choice, you choose the free stuff every time. 
It’s a self-reinforcing cycle. As more renewables are installed, coal and natural gas plants are used less. As coal and gas are used less, the cost of using them to generate electricity goes up. As the cost of coal and gas power rises, more renewables will be installed. 

The virtuous cycle has begun.

image1.PNGSource: Bloomberg
Wind and solar have long made up a small fraction of U.S. electricity—about 5 percent in 2014. But production has been rising at an exponential rate, and those two energy sources are now big enough to influence when coal and natural gas plants are kept running, according to BNEF.
There are two reasons this shift in capacity factors is important. First, it's yet another sign of the rising disruptive force of renewable energy in power markets. It's impossible to brush aside renewables in the U.S. in the same way it might have been just a few years ago.  "Renewables are really becoming cost-competitive, and they're competing more directly with fossil fuels," said BNEF analyst Luke Mills. "We're seeing the utilization rate of fossil fuels wear away." 
Second, the shift illustrates a serious new risk for power companies planning to invest in coal or natural-gas plants. Historically, a high capacity factor has been a fixed input in the cost calculation. But now anyone contemplating a billion-dollar power plant with an anticipated lifespan of decades must consider the possibility that as time goes on, the plant will be used less than when its doors first open. 

Capacity Factors Take a Sharp Turn

image2.PNGSource: Bloomberg, Data: BNEF
Most of the decline in capacity factors is due to expensive "base-load plants that are being turned on less because of renewables," according to BNEF analyst Jacqueline Lilinshtein. Plants designed to come online only during the highest demand of the year, known as peaker plants, play a smaller role. In either case, the end result is that coal-fired and gas-fired electricity is becoming more expensive and the profits less predictable.
The opposite is true of wind and solar, as well as new battery systems that can be paired with renewables to replace some peaker plants. Wind power, including U.S. subsidies, became the cheapest electricity in the U.S. for the first time last year, according to BNEF. Solar power is a bit further behind, but the costs are dropping rapidly, especially those associated with financing a new project. 

Latest Solar Costs by State

image3.PNGSource: BNEF, Annotated by Bloomberg
The economic advantages of wind and solar over fossil fuels go beyond price. Still, it's remarkable that in every major region of the world, the lifetime cost of new coal and gas projects are rising considerably in the second half of 2015, according to BNEF. And in every major region the cost of renewables continues to fall. 


Solar & Wind Reach a Big Renewables Turning Point : BNEF - Bloomberg Business





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Friday, September 25, 2015

#Iran's Next Challenge: Courting #Oil Investors

Iran is preparing to formally open up its economy to Western investment, a prospect that has drawn the attention of the world's biggest oil companies. But Tehran may have more difficulty reviving its oil and natural gas sector than it hopes. On Sept. 24, the organizers of the Iran Oil and Gas Summit announced that the event would be delayed until February 2016. Originally set for Dec. 14-16, the London conference is important because it will officially mark the start of Iran's economic reintegration with the rest of the international community. At the summit, Iran plans to unveil the final draft of its new petroleum contract, which is expected to lay out significantly more attractive investment terms for international oil companies than seen in previous models.
The conference, delayed for the fourth time, will now align more closely with the expected timetable for the easing of sanctions outlined in the Iranian nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, released in July. According to that schedule, sanctions will probably be lifted sometime during the first quarter of 2016. Because the sanctions have prohibited Western companies from participating in Iran's oil and natural gas sector for several years, their removal is key to Iran's goal of bringing its production and exports back online. But even if the West eases sanctions and Iran successfully attracts the interest of major international energy companies, as will likely happen, Tehran will struggle to meet its long-term goal of producing 6 million barrels of oil per day. 
Read the whole analysis on Stratfor here: Iran's Next Challenge: Courting Oil Investors

Monday, September 21, 2015

The #Shale Delusion: Why The Party’s Over For U.S. Tight #Oil | OilPrice.com

#Opec/ #SaudiArabia has so far won in maintaining market share as U.S. Tight oil production declines, and "with #Iran poised in early 2016 to add almost as much oil as the amount of the U.S. production decline to date, the outlook for tight oil producers could not be worse."

The shale delusion: Why the party is over for U.S. tight oil

An employee works on oil pumping gear, also known as nodding donkeys or pump jacks, at an oil plant operated by MND AS in Uhrice, Czech Republic, on Monday, March 23, 2015. Oil rose as the dollar weakened for a third day, making commodities priced in the U.S. currency more attractive to investors. Photographer: Martin Divisek/Bloomberg
The party is over for tight oil. Despite brash statements by U.S. producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oil prices are killing tight oil companies. Reports this week from IEA and EIA paint a bleak picture for oil prices as the world production surplus continues.

The EIA said that U.S. production will fall by 1 million barrels per day over the next year and that, “expected crude oil production declines from May 2015 through mid-2016 are largely attributable to unattractive economic returns.”

IEA made the point more strongly.

“..the latest price rout could stop US growth in its tracks.”

In other words, outside of the very best areas of the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian, the tight oil party is over because companies will lose money at forecasted oil prices for the next year.

Global supply and demand fundamentals continue to worsen
IEA data shows that the current second-quarter 2015 production surplus of 2.6 million barrels per day is the greatest since the oil-price collapse began in 2014 (Figure 1).

Screenshot 2015-09-18 11.47.50

EIA monthly data for August also indicates a 2.6 million barrel per day production surplus, an increase of 270,000 barrels per day compared to July (Figure 2).

Screenshot 2015-09-18 11.48.08

It further suggests that the August production surplus is because of both a production (supply) increase of 85,000 barrels per day and a consumption (demand) decrease of 182,000 barrels per day compared to July.

The world oil demand growth picture is discouraging despite an increase in U.S. gasoline consumption (Figure 3).

Screenshot 2015-09-18 11.49.48

World liquids year-over-year demand growth has fallen by almost half from 2.3 percent in September 2014 to 1.2 percent in August 2015. This is part of overall weak demand in a global economy that has been severely weakened by debt.

The news from both IEA and EIA is, of course, terrible for those hoping for an increase in oil prices.

U.S. production has fallen 510,000 barrels of crude oil per day since April 2015 while OPEC production has increased 1.2 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year (Figure 4). U.S. production increases in the first quarter of 2015 were partly because of an oil-price rally that ended badly this summer, and because of new projects coming on-line in the Gulf of Mexico.

Screenshot 2015-09-18 11.50.22

It appears that OPEC is winning the contest with U.S. tight oil producers to see which can continue to over-produce oil at low prices. IEA ended its September Oil Monthly Reportsaying,”On the face of it, the Saudi-led OPEC strategy to defend market share regardless of price appears to be having the intended effect of driving out costly, “inefficient” production.”

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

#Nigeria: Too much of a good thing #oil @FT

Lex


Nigeria
has plenty of oil and nowhere to put it. The country produces 2m
barrels per day of a lighter, premium crude that refiners around the
world dislike. After a decade of investment in equipment that can handle
lower quality crudes, refiners feel no need to pay up for lighter
grades.







Nigerian crudes commanded an average $2.50 per barrel premium over
the benchmark Brent price between 2010 and 2014. That spread has
collapsed to 50 cents. This is not just Nigeria’s problem. It could
become one for Opec, as well.



Read the whole article online here:  Nigeria: oil excess - FT.com




Saturday, May 23, 2015

We’re Are About to see Millions of Barrels of #Oil get vaporized @Bloomberg



Millions of barrels of untapped oil that U.S. shale drillers discovered during the boom years are about to disappear from their inventories.

Six years ago, the industry pushed the Securities and Exchange Commission to make it easier for companies to claim proved reserves for wells that wouldn’t be drilled for years. Some prospects considered sure-things when crude was $95 a barrel are money losers at today’s $60. When crude
crashed in 2008, 44 U.S. companies wiped 630 million barrels from their books.



Now the stakes are higher. Of all the proved reserves of oil and natural gas liquids found by the 44 companies since 2008, more than half -- 5.4 billion barrels out of the 9.7 billion -- is attributed to wells that don’t exist yet, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


“We’re going to see a lot of proved undeveloped reserves get vaporized,” said Ed Hirs, a managing director at Houston-based Hillhouse Resources LLC, an independent energy company, who also teaches energy economics at the University of Houston. “It could easily be 10 or 20
years before some of these wells get drilled if prices stay at these levels.”


Read the whole article online here: Millions of Barrels of Oil Are About to Vanish - Bloomberg Business




Tuesday, April 28, 2015

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Schlumberger in Brazil seismic tie-up http://t.co/83IQDkFvzs #MasterEnergy #live


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April 27, 2015 at 03:55PM
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Sinopec manager under investigation http://t.co/r7ZXRQR5S9 #MasterEnergy #live


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April 27, 2015 at 03:55PM
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Oil groups have new vigour for cost cuts: Drive for reduced bills from suppliers and better tax ... http://t.co/EufZpdwaHE #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 03:55PM
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USG-ARA benzene arbitrage open on NWE price above $900/mt: sources: The US Gulf to Amsterdam-Rot... http://t.co/BbWQJRI9x0 #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 03:55PM
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Schlumberger in Brazil seismic tie-up: Oilfield services giant in co-operation deal with Spectru... http://t.co/oAjbsKCnob #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 03:55PM
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Australian NSW rail network for #coal exports still shut after storms http://t.co/Gnms1dzVH6 #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 02:33PM
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Gasoil CIF Med differential at near 10-week high on stronger physical demand http://t.co/QMSF7wiSwM #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 02:33PM
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Gulf states feel pinch as prices stay low http://t.co/3XtXIofHF9 #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 02:33PM
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Tullow on track with TEN #oil field off Ghana after maritime ruling http://t.co/22gSvfkd9c #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 02:33PM
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Precision takes big profit hit http://t.co/c9a9q5F9yy #MasterEnergy #live


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April 27, 2015 at 02:33PM
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Australian NSW rail network for coal exports still shut after storms: The rail network for coal ... http://t.co/HCZkJCTNRn #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 02:32PM
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Gulf states feel pinch as prices stay low: Governments across the region have begun to trim spen... http://t.co/xP7sUQw4JS #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 02:32PM
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Precision takes big profit hit: Canadian player sees net earnings and revenues drop, as drilling... http://t.co/gnRN4v9DB4 #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 02:32PM
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RT @lindseyhilsum: I have just learned that #OmaralBashir has won 94.05% of the vote in #Sudan's presidential election. Who'd have thought it?


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April 27, 2015 at 02:16PM
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⬇️ 54%!! @Krohn_DC: #NorthDakota's #oil drilling #rig count is now at 84 rigs, 98 less than this time of year in 2014 http://t.co/LkjfbDz273


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April 27, 2015 at 02:13PM
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RT @carbellorin: 2014 PDVSA Consolidated Financial Results-> #PDVSA paid #arbitration award of US$644 million to Gulmar Offshore et al http://t.co/QbQDB7N9u1


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April 27, 2015 at 01:52PM
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Galp sees profit double http://t.co/Saelmetyip #MasterEnergy #live


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April 27, 2015 at 12:53PM
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BP investors need protecting from Cameron http://t.co/iJ9RxXWH5d #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 12:53PM
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Arctic ice shift 'against law' http://t.co/1rqPXSSnf0 #MasterEnergy #live


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April 27, 2015 at 12:53PM
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Deflation? Oil's 45 percent rebound could be markets' next headache - Reuters… http://t.co/57nVfSJPJj #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 12:53PM
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China seeks united front in reactor push http://t.co/5bs6h7QZek #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 12:53PM
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BP investors need protecting from Cameron: Shareholders have paid for the right to determine the... http://t.co/BQHJCM7hWs #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 12:53PM
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Arctic ice shift 'against law': Green groups 'preparing litigation' to invalide 23rd round off N... http://t.co/2fKKSExaR3 #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 12:53PM
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Deflation? Oil's 45 percent rebound could be markets' next headache - Reuters UK: Reuters UKDefl... http://t.co/wTuMCL9csG #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 12:53PM
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Baron resumes Nancy-1 flows http://t.co/rL567NjS2F #MasterEnergy #live


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April 27, 2015 at 11:26AM
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Inpex gets Adco stake http://t.co/kmhRj2eDeC #MasterEnergy #live


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April 27, 2015 at 11:26AM
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Baron resumes Nancy-1 flows: London-listed player re-starts production at onshore Colombia field... http://t.co/d0BnKHfj67 #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 11:26AM
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Inpex gets Adco stake: Japanese player snaps up minority in coveted Abu Dhabi onshore concession http://t.co/URrLuUsk5G #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 11:26AM
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Sinopec wins Ain Tsila rig deal: Chinese giant to drill plethora of wells for Sonatrach, Enel an... http://t.co/Hl9IW2fY8e #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 10:21AM
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Centrica on course for capex cut: UK gas player sticking to upstream cost-cutting plan and pushe... http://t.co/6CaftiRtXX #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 10:21AM
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Tullow moves forward on TEN: Multi-field project off Ghana 'remains on track' after ITLOS reject... http://t.co/yITYtyJIIE #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 10:21AM
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Sinopec wins Ain Tsila rig deal http://t.co/J5hP6YsOT3 #MasterEnergy #live


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April 27, 2015 at 10:21AM
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Centrica on course for capex cut http://t.co/q9RvqWfNL8 #MasterEnergy #live


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April 27, 2015 at 10:21AM
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Tullow moves forward on TEN http://t.co/eAIOzV86pZ #MasterEnergy #live


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April 27, 2015 at 10:21AM
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Oil plunge continues to chill Centrica http://t.co/HTQsaOdEfa #MasterEnergy


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April 27, 2015 at 10:21AM
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Monday, April 20, 2015

Moftinu serious for Serinus: Romania onshore find seen as commercial prospect for development af... http://t.co/bZJksUdWo0 #MasterEnergy


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April 20, 2015 at 04:08PM
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Further cost overruns hit Petrofac shares: Chief executive of oil services group says problemati... http://t.co/EqvAJ0eAAX #MasterEnergy


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April 20, 2015 at 02:47PM
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Oil Drillers Plot Survival Plan - Wall Street Journal: Wall Street JournalOil Drillers Plot Surv... http://t.co/YxDFtWHtJC #MasterEnergy


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April 20, 2015 at 02:47PM
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Cameron ‘enters Gabon oil row’: UK prime minister sends letter to Gabonese government hoping for... http://t.co/wnd3PdwLEO #MasterEnergy


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April 20, 2015 at 02:47PM
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Businesses to unite on green agenda http://t.co/xCQFX53MHY #MasterEnergy


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April 20, 2015 at 02:47PM
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Oil falls on strong dollar and as Saudi output remains near record high… http://t.co/UH4nS1gvg4 #MasterEnergy


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April 20, 2015 at 02:47PM
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