Thursday, March 22, 2018

How “Green” is your #EV? Depends, says @WEF

The surprising truth behind the world's electric cars | World Economic Forum
Though electric cars are greener than conventional ones, much of their power still comes from coal.

The surprising truth behind the world's electric cars

Baojun E100 all-electric battery cars are seen while they are being charged in the parking lot in front of a Baojun NEV Experience Center store in Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, November 8, 2017. Picture taken November 8, 2017. REUTERS/Norihiko Shirouzu

Image: REUTERS/Norihiko Shirouzu

The production and sale of electric vehicles accelerated in 2016, with two million cars manufactured and over 750,000 sold globally, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2017 Global Electric Vehicle report.

And the market is expected to boom further in the coming years. The report predicts electric car stocks will range from between nine million and 20 million by 2020 and between 40 million and 70 million by 2025. Countries around the world are also attempting to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars, and are encouraging motorists to go green.

However, electric vehicles are not emissions-free. While these vehicles obviously run on electricity, that electricity typically comes from a mix of emissions-intensive fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and power from renewables. That is, unless you live in country like Norway, which generates virtually all of its electricity from hydropower. But Norway is the exception rather than the rule.

At the other end of the scale, China, whose electric vehicle market accounts for 40% of all sales globally, drives the most emissions-intensive electric cars. That is according to data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), which shows the majority of China's electricity comes from coal.

China commands 40% of the global electric car market

Image: REUTERS/Norihiko Shirouzu

China's coal consumption intensifies

According to BNEF's data, electric vehicles in China produce 188.5 grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per mile, the most of any country globally. In comparison, electric vehicles in the United Kingdom produce just over 76 grams of CO2, while in France just 2.7 grams are produced per mile.

The eco benefits outweigh the energy concerns

In reality, though, driving an electric car is still far more environmentally friendly than driving a gasoline-burning vehicle, which typically produce about 250 grams of CO2 per mile, BNEF says.

BNEF also points out that electric vehicles were 39% cleaner on average than using internal combustion engines in 2016. That gap is expected to widen to 67% by 2040, as renewables such as solar and wind make up a larger share of the global energy mix.

Monday, March 5, 2018

Biggest risk to #Oil market lies most likely in #Venezuela @NickBb2211 #Guyana #OPEC #OOTT @FT

There are many-mostly political-risks out there, from Saudi pushback on #MBS' "reforms" to instability/conflict on the Korean Peninsula, but the biggest all round risk to the Oil market lies in #Venezuela, writes Nick Butler @NickBb2211. 

"What surprise event of 2018 will shift the energy market out of a complacency that is the result of steady demand matched by plentiful supplies, with the equation balanced not just by the Opec quota but also by the continuing decline in Venezuelan production.

It is hard to identify any factor within the industry that could reshape the market…Any real change will come from events in the external political environment. "
"to me the most likely — risk lies in Venezuela, the most unstable state within Opec. The country's inflation is beyond counting. The economy, civil society and government have broken down. The army is a caricature of corruption. President Nicolás Maduro remains in power but his position is weak. The danger is that in extremis he seeks a convenient enemy against which to unite the nation and embarrass the Venezuelan opposition. 

"The most likely target is Guyana — the subject of a long-running territorial dispute. Recently, I wrote about the new offshore oil discoveries. The beginning now of the process of development of those fields, which are due on stream by 2020, could provide an excuse for Venezuelan intervention in the disputed area east of the Essequibo river."

Read the whole piece by Nick Butler @NickBb2211 online @FT:

Sunday, March 4, 2018

About ⅔ of utility-scale #batterystorage power capacity installed in 2016 in US is located in 2 electricity markets: #California (CAISO), & #PJMInterconnection, in all or parts of 13 eastern states & DC. @EIAgov

The design and application of utility-scale battery storage varies by region - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The design and application of utility-scale battery storage varies by region
February 28, 2018 U.S. utility-scale battery storage capacity by region, as explained in the article text

About two-thirds of utility-scale battery storage power capacity installed in 2016 in the United States is located in two electricity markets: the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which covers much of California, and the PJM Interconnection, which covers all or parts of 13 eastern states and the District of Columbia. Utility-scale battery systems have been installed in these markets for different reasons. Utility-scale battery storage systems in California tend to serve energy-oriented applications, with smaller power capacities but longer discharge durations. Conversely, systems in PJM tend to serve power-oriented applications, with larger power capacities but shorter discharge durations.
Unlike most electricity generators, which can be characterized by their power capacity, batteries are characterized by two metrics: power capacity and energy capacity. Power capacity, measured in megawatts (MW), is the maximum instantaneous amount of power that can be produced on a continuous basis. Energy capacity, measured in megawatthours (MWh), is the total amount of energy that can be stored or discharged by the battery.

Saturday, March 3, 2018

Welfare Gains from Market Insurance: The Case of #Mexican #Oil Price #Hedge @IMF

Over the past two decades, Mexico has hedged oil price risk through the purchase of put options.... We show that hedging increases welfare by reducing income volatility and reducing risk spreads on sovereign debt. We find welfare gains equivalent to a permanent increase in consumption of 0.44 percent with 90 percent of these gains stemming from lower risk spreads.

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

#Venezuela #Oil Production #OOTT

Venezuela: Hide and Seek with Genscape's Flare-Signature Intelligence |

Venezuela: Hide and Seek with Genscape's Flare-Signature Intelligence

Devin Geoghegan, Global Director, Supply & Demand Analytics
February 13, 2018

Deciphering Venezuelan oil is akin to searching for a rusted penny at night in a muddy pond with only starlight to illuminate – you are better off relying on a metal detector. To provide transparency into the current situation, Genscape decided to deploy its proprietary flare signature methodology on Venezuelan oil production after having had success with Libya. As discussed below, we believe the work shines needed light in near-real time on Petróleos de Venezuela S.A's ("PDVSA") oil and other liquids production. Notably, Genscape's work disagrees with and sometimes front-runs benchmark data at key inflection points.
As with Libya, Genscape built the monitor using government, regulatory, and company data by field-area, and we mapped it to our proprietary flare signature methodology across time. The results are showcased in Figure 1 below along with a few key annotations.

Genscape's High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor
Figure 1: The blue line represents Genscape's daily total liquids production estimate; the black line is the rolling five-day average of the estimated production; the red, green, and yellow lines represent the IEA, PDVSA, and OPEC, respectively. Note: given that PDVSA and OPEC only provide oil production, their time series has been modified to include condensate and NGL volumes. Click to enlarge

As shown in Figure 1 above, the monitor markedly disagreed with the benchmark data five times since April 2013. Twice it is lower and thrice higher. During late 2013 through Q3 2015, the monitor did not detect signal degradation to corroborated production declines shown by the IEA and OPEC. By Q3 2015, the three time series (Genscape's Monitor, the IEA, and OPEC) converged as production estimates by the IEA and OPEC rose slightly and the monitor detected signal erosion. However, in Q4 2015 the monitor detected significant signal decay (followed by a brief recovery) and indicated that production was running into problems several months before the IEA and OPEC reflected a new period of sharp declines. 
Subsequently, the monitor and the benchmarks moved in-line with each other until May 2017 when the monitor again detected significant signal declines. Part of these declines were the cessation of flare signatures from facilities in the El Salto and San Cristobal field-areas, which indicated production was again facing substantial headwinds. From that point through November 2017, the monitor showed production falling faster than the benchmarks.

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